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Author Topic: New Supreme Court Case.....thoughts?  (Read 667 times)
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LastDefender
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Posts: 1422



« on: October 02, 2009, 02:21:16 PM »

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125432086519552597.html


Seems real quiet on this?
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fargo007
Booshway
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2009, 07:37:52 PM »

Oral arguments aren't until February.

My thoughts are that it will be another 5-4 decision our way. 

There's no logical way they can separate their conclusions of an individual right in Heller, and then turn around and contradict that by flushing (only) that right down the toilet.

Our way, 5-4. 

Forward outcome will be constitutional challenges to many state laws. 

--Fargo007
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JohnKSa
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2009, 09:27:53 PM »

Quote
There's no logical way they can separate their conclusions of an individual right in Heller, and then turn around and contradict that by flushing (only) that right down the toilet.
Actually they can.  All they have to do is say that the Heller ruling and the 2nd in general only restricts the federal government, not state & local governments.

Frankly I think there's more to lose than to gain from this case.  If we lose it gives every state and local government an open door to restrict firearms however they see fit.  If we win, those of us in the free states won't see anything change at all.  In fact there are only a very few places in the nation that will benefit from the SCOTUS ruling that laws as restrictive as those in DC and Chicago are unconstitutional since there are only a very few places that have laws that restrictive.

Yes, there would be some theoretical gains from a win, but in terms of truly practical gains the vast majority of Americans wouldn't see anything.
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fargo007
Booshway
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Posts: 594



« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2009, 09:23:27 AM »

I guess I see it differently. 

You gotta consider that things in a "free" state might not always remain that way.  There are forces in every one of them that would love to turn those free states into "People's Republics" like New Jerseys or Californias.

A good decision here cements down the progress we have already made, and takes away an entire front for the anti's to fight on.

It also stops money coming in to their causes because it's going to be interpreted as a loser issue.

The legal eagles are not giving the chicago gun ban any odds of surviving.

Looking at it this way, I see a lot of gain.  Actually, more than Heller.  There are more laws that will fall over this decision than did with Heller, and will automatically call into question the constitutionality of any further restrictive gun control laws passed at ANY level, federal, state, or local.

--Fargo007

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JohnKSa
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2009, 07:33:48 PM »

All of the possible positive effects depend on a win.  I agree that a win would make passing very restrictive gun control laws more difficult.  HOWEVER, the Heller ruling was not very general.  Basically it said that it was unconstitutional for DC to prevent people from owning a handgun that was kept ready to be used for self-defense in the home. So if this case extends that to the states, all it does is prevent a state/local govt from passing a law that says you can't own a handgun that is kept in a ready state for self-defense in your own home.

Some day in the far distant future that may prevent laws from being passed in the free states but not any time soon.  None of the free states are contemplating any laws like that and they are highly unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future.  So it might one day prevent a very restrictive law from being passed but the only near-term effect on the vast majority of the country would be to inform anti-gunners that they can pretty much restrict firearm ownership any way they want--to include the elimination of all concealed carry laws, passing laws requiring firearm registration, etc.  They'll just know they will have to stop short of actually outlawing and entire general class of firearms completely.

Quote
will automatically call into question the constitutionality of any further restrictive gun control laws passed at ANY level, federal, state, or local.
There are a very few very limited areas (2 or 3 cities, primarily) that would have to adjust their current laws, but that's the extent of laws that would be overturned if we win the case.  Only tthe most restrictive gun control laws in the country would be in danger of being overturned.

On the other hand, a loss would be catastrophic.  It would be a green light for any state or local government to pass any gun control--upt to and including a law that would make it illegal to have a handgun in your own home that is kept ready for self-defense.  Basically the Supreme Court saying that DC is the only place in the nation that guarantees your right to have a handgun in your own home.  That would really energize the anti-gunners.  They would have the assurance of the Supreme Court that any gun control law they manage to pass will not be overturned by the courts. 

In other words a HUGE loss if we lose but only a relatively small gain if we win--a small gain that would really only come into play in the distant future for 99.9% of the country.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2009, 11:56:34 PM by JohnKSa » Logged

fargo007
Booshway
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2009, 01:14:45 PM »

Thanks,

I agree with you that there is a lot to lose here, but I do not see any likelihood of failure, IF WE STRIKE NOW.  More on that at the end.

Heller was nothing, other than a finding of an individual right.  Without incorporation, even that is meaningless in practical terms.

I believe it's a wider impact that 2-3 cities across the entire country. 

Assuming a victory, New Jersey, California, Massachusetts, NY State......  All these have laws that could now be contested on constitutional grounds.

New Jersey for instance, doesn't incorporate the second amendment into its own constitution.  They have relied on that in legal decisions to the extent where even the reverse of the 2nd amendment is more true.  A mandate from SCOTUS (via incorporation) would effectively insert the 2A there, and expose the numerous decisions where they have invoked such an absence to new challenge, on a different and more advantageous playing field.

Basically you get to say a state/local gun control law is unconstitutional, and sue/litigate your way up the food chain all the way to SCOTUS.  We couldn't do that before. 

Incorporation simply has to get done, or the individual right specified by Heller is a paper tiger.  Doing it now before they soften their laws enough to give them a chance to equivocate is the right decision.  The other side is angry and not thinking clearly.   ........... Good! 

Alan Gura is arguing our side.  We couldn't have a better guy.  This country needs a freakin' statue of him somewhere.

It's the right challenge to the right law at the right time, led by the right legal team.

--Fargo007

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chauncey
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Posts: 6


« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2009, 06:01:01 PM »

I think this is an occasion where we have more to gain than lose. pro-2A legal teams need to strike while the iron is hot and get as much distance out of Heller as we can while the same SCOTUS balance still exists. we need to recognize that we may be at least 7 years fom the ability to get another Conservative on the court, while at the same time we have the Dems scared to lose power through facing down the gun lobby and a large percentage of Americans that woke up every day since 9/12/2001 and realized that the US gov't really can't protect them, and that their safety will always be a bit of an illusion
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